Ask any manufacturer in Europe what their biggest headache is right now, and there\u2019s a high probability their answer will be \u201csupply chain\u201d \u2013 or something related.\u00a0 Global shipping was showing signs of recovering from the months of mayhem caused by Covid-19, and the wave of pent-up demand that followed the initial lockdowns around the world.\u00a0 But now congestion and delays in Shanghai, the world\u2019s biggest container port, are wreaking havoc not only on China\u2019s economy but globally. \u00a0In 2020-21 much of the world experienced restrictions on personal movement, with corresponding effects on business globally \u2013 in 2022 we are discovering in a new way what happens when just one (arguably the) crucial crossroads for global trade is taken out of action.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In some ways it\u2019s reminiscent of those 6 days in March last year when one of the largest container ships ever built, the Ever Given, got stuck in the Suez Canal, freezing nearly $10 billion per day in trade.\u00a0 As the New York Times commented a few months later, \u201cFor the internet, it was a bottomlessly amusing spectacle. For global shipping, it was a worst-nightmare lesson in the perils of a new breed of mega-freighter operating in tight spaces.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is nothing \u201camusing\u201d about the current situation. On 28 March, Shanghai began a phased-lockdown: first the urban area on eastern side of the Huangpu River went into lockdown for four days, then the western side.\u00a0 \u00a0But this did not stop the number of Covid cases rising, and so it was followed by a complete lockdown.\u00a0 Many weeks have passed, and though case numbers have fallen again, the lockdown remains in force at time of writing (13 May), with residents and businesses still unclear about when they will be able to resume normal life again.\u00a0 (It\u2019s not just Shanghai of course - estimates suggest that about one third of China\u2019s population were under some kind of lockdown last month).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A port is not like a light switch: turning it on again - relaxing work restrictions - will not instantly restore normality to supply chains.\u00a0 Experts estimate that global shipping will suffer well into this summer, and this, together with the impact of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, will put even more pressure on supply chains, keeping businesses waiting and extending their own lead-times further.\u00a0 Figures released by maritime data analysists Windward a few weeks ago said that nearly 20% of the world\u2019s container vessels were currently waiting outside congested ports \u2013 and a quarter of these were outside Chinese ports (412 ships, up 58% since February).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not only are transit times for shipping routes to and from China increasing again, but trucking services around Shanghai are severely impacted by local travel restrictions, some ships are being re-routed leading to extra costs, further complicating the situation.\u00a0 And air-freight is affected too of course.\u00a0 Last month Geodis reported a 50% drop in flights at Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport, for instance; most inbound cargo at this crucial hub is bound for other cities, including Shanghai \u2014 when the cargo can\u2019t move to its final destination, backlogs are inevitable.\u00a0 As a result, logistics companies could only clear shipments that customers were collecting right there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No matter how much Western businesses may talk about \u201conshoring\u201d activities to reduce risk, it is inevitable that raw materials, components, part-finished and finished goods will continue to be consolidated, shipped, warehoused, distributed and delivered internationally.\u00a0 What is becoming clearer to more companies now, is that fact that this vital aspect of business needs not only to be efficient, it also needs to be incredibly robust.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The ability to respond well to unexpected challenges \u2013 a blocked Suez Canal, or a locked-down Shanghai \u2013 only comes with time, experience, and relationships of trust. Deep local expertise and long-term relationships are vital to ensuring that when the unthinkable happens, you\u2019re not left high-and-dry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n